Skip to main content

tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  November 29, 2013 4:00am-6:01am EST

4:00 am
hello. you're watching "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. dutch finance minister tells cnbc he's disappointed by the downgrade of the country's credit rating from s&p. but insists he is working on structural reform. better news for spain. s&p raises its outlook to stable while cypress is erasing -- we'll hear from them at 111:00 cet. shop until you drop.
4:01 am
americans hit the stores in search of steals and deals on black thursday. and hands off our week, shares plummet after australia's mitland say it's just not in the nation's interest. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> a warm welcome to the last "worldwide exchange" of the month. standard & poors cut its long-term credit rating for the neglect netherlands from aa plus from aaa. speaking earlier, the dutch finance minister gave his reaction. >> i take these ratings seriously because the markets take them seriously. as i said, growth expectations
4:02 am
for the netherlands are the same that we have ourselves on which we base our budget and it just confirms the need for us to push forward some of these reforms so we can get bigger and better growth figures. of course, you know, the other two rating agencies have only recently confirmed the aaa status for the netherlands and now s&p has downgraded us to aa plus. i'm disappointed by that fact. >> s&p, though, had better news for cypress. it raised the country's sovereign credit rating to b minus/b. adding that the nation's external position was improving. we'll be joined by s&p's chief sovereign ratings offer at 10:15 cet. now, we have helga. let's kick off on your views of the dutch economy.
4:03 am
the outlook is stable. how much pressure are they under? >> they are under a bit of pressure. the economy has been in a recession early this year. the government ought to deliver some further reforms. the government ought to find ways to make sure that the dutch economy is no longer prone to boom-bust cycles. all in all, it's a pretty solid economy still. >> yeah. at the end of the day, they're only one notch below germany, to put it into perspective. >> arguably, being below germany at the moment is where they belong. germany does not have such as the real estate boom/bust issue. but the netherlands, by and large, are a pretty good economy. they're also the port of europe. and now that the european economy is picking up a little speed, the port of europe, one of the services centers of europe, the dutch economy, is
4:04 am
likely to do fairly well. >> how does what's going on in the netherlands tie in with the rest of europe. clearly, we had an upgrade for spain, but france and italy still have negative growth. >> italy and france will probably be out of negative growth shortly. france is a bit of an oddity. so the fair description of france is probably mediocre growth rather than a recession. what we see in the eurozone is especially, if you look at spain, part of the periphery are improving a lot and at the core we have a bit of complacency. all in all, there's the biggest convergence between the periphery doing better and the core not improving further. france is the one big open question here. it ought to reform, but it doesn't. >> you think france is in recession. the latest pmi suggested it may well be. >> well, yeah, but that may have
4:05 am
been an overreaction, the latest pmis to a few weeks of political turbulence with street protests in parts of france. i do think that the french economy will rejoin the european mainstream. if spain is going up, if germany is going up, the uk is strong, france will not be left behind in recession. the economy is not in such a bad shape. it's just that france will have less growth than the others. >> wheelchair got inflation coming out in about an hour. the core rate is running 0.8%, from around there. we saw m3 yesterday coming in at 147% on the year-end october, forecast add 1.7%. how big is the deflation threat? >> well, we like to see a modest inflation. the readings that we had was artificially depressed.
4:06 am
but, indeed, underlying inflation in the eurozone is just below 1%. and with the economy at the moment having a mediocre growth .money supply dynamics being fairly weak, inflation can stay low. there is a chance that three months or six months from now inflation will be even a little lower than it is today. >> which would warrant more reaction from the ecb? >> depends on what the real economy does. if the real economy follows the reading indicators and actually perks up, then the ecb doesn't have to do more. inflation is a lagging indicator of the cycle. we know inflation will start to normalize. >> have a great weekend when it starts. just a reminder, we will be joined by officer marks cramer at 11:15 cet, just over an hour
4:07 am
from now. tune in on tuesday. michelle caruso cabrera will be joined by harris georgiades on cnbc. today, we get second quarter gdp data. we'll have a preview of that. and with the yen language wishing at a five-year low versus the euro, we're going to call on the japanese ministry in 15 minutes' time. you might be attempted to check for bargains online. we'll get a view of the online shopping trend at 11:20 cet. and courtney reagan has made it out to the shops. she'll join us live from ohio in the heat of the black friday battle. that's coming up at 11:30 cet. meanwhile, we'll bring you up to speed with global equities trade on the last day of the month of
4:08 am
november. pretty even stavens right now. just about the advancers nudging at 5 to 4 in terms of gainers versus losers. no u.s. equity markets yesterday. we have a half day of trading day stateside. right now, the ftse is up 10 points. the xetra dax is flat. the cac 40 is fairly flat and the ftse mib down 0.2%. break down the sectors for you right now. this is where we stand. we've got support from telecom's travel & leisure. basic resources down again. it hasn't been a particularly good year for basic resources. take a look at gold. slim falls this morning of 65 points. we are at about the highest level for six years. the shanghai composite was steady. hang seng up 0.3%.
4:09 am
the s&p/asx down 0.25%. bond markets get back into session for a shortened session today stateside. ten-year treasury yields, higher, 2.75% after nudging down 2.69%. we'll keep our eyes on gilt yields again today. 2.75%, the yield on the ten year. we're going to get the latest out from the mortgage approvals. on the currency market, dollar/yen, 102.311. we've had a five-year low against the euro, as well. down over 4%. both the dollar and the euro over the course of the month. sterling/dollar, 1.6328. not far away from the peak for this year for cable. euro/dollar, just above 1.36 at
4:10 am
the moment, which is fairly near a four-week high. i just want to point out gold. gold having its biggest monthly drop in five months, down 6% in the month of november. it's a little firmer today at 1,246. pressure metals down 25% over the course of the year. meanwhile, talk about commodities, hands off our wheat. australia's surprise decision to scuttle a u.s. takeover of grain corp. sent shares down 22% today. >> the government in australia has blocked archer daniel's $2 million takeover bid for grain corp. treasury says a takeover would go against national interests. >> we are, of the more than 130 applications that have come to my desk since the election, only one has been declined, and this
4:11 am
is it. and i have acted in the national interests. the fact is, the industry is going through transition and now is not the right time to have all the major players foreign owned during that transition. >> they will consider increasing its stake in grain corp. given the treasury left the door open for a larger stake. there were concerns over foreign wheat shipments and infrastructure. the treasurer says he made the decision after the foreign investment review board remains split on whether to allow the deal to go ahead. some traders say the drop could be a good buying opportunity. others are more cautious, bby, cutting its rating to underperform from a buy. >> there's some encouraging insight today that japan may be
4:12 am
gaining the edge on its battle with inflation. household spending rose, once the jobless rate held steady and factory output ticked higher. regional economist at barclay's is joining us. rahoul, how encouraged are you by this data? is japan exiting deflation? >> well, we think we are going to see a little bit of an improvement in the inflationary pressures. but overall, still a lot more needs to be done if the bank of japan is going to hit its 2% inflation target based on our current projections, we don't think that's going to happen and, hence, we think the governor at bank of japan will have to do mormon tear easing coming this april in 2014 in order to, again, re-establish
4:13 am
their credibility that they can eventually hit the target of 2%. >> gradually rise next year, how long do you think it might take to hit 2% or what will they need to do to try and hit 2%? >> well, given the three arrows policy of the prime minister abe, the third arrow has been somewhat disappointing. so they will probably have to do a little bit more on the monetary side. we think dollar/yen needs to head significantly higher from the current levels if we are only going to see monetary stimulus achieving this particular target. but at this particular junction, we don't think that 2% is going to be hit in the next couple of years, at least. >> what about the sort of growth we're going to get? >> in terms of growth, we think the fourth quarter could be marginally better. but as far as 2014 is concerned, we think there's probably going
4:14 am
to be a bit of a slowdown compared to 2013. so growth in the range of 1% to 1.5% is where economists are begging. if the global economy colors are a little bit more, the export cycle improves, we could see marginal upside surprises coming across. >> the nikkei is up 50% this year. you've got the yen down at four-year lows against both the dollar and the euro at the moment. do you expect the yen to continue to weaken and, therefore, to support stocks? >> we do expect the yen to weaken on the back of monetary stimulus. our sense is monetary correlation is going to stay put going into the new year. so, yeah, japanese equities still remains always from our perspective. shares in india are on the rise. gdp numbers out later today expected to pick up growth in
4:15 am
the july to september quarter is estimated to rise to 4.6% on the year according to a reuters poll and this on the back of manufacturing and a slight pick up of agricultural. if it is met, this will mean for straight quarters of growth under 5% for the country. they need stronger growth. have things hit a bottom for india? >> well, things have hit a bottom in certain sectors. if you look at the export performance in the last three, four months, that has improved significantly. we are seeing agricultural growth picking up at the margin. but overall, the sentiments and industry are the ones which were affected by the higher interest rates that the rbi has pushed through in the last couple of months. that continues to remain a deflationary sort of a contractionary factor in the economy. it's unlikely we are going to see very strong growth. i think growth will remain
4:16 am
sub-6% for a long period. we could see stronger growth in the second period, but that will come off a very, very low base. >> clearly, there's a lot of pressure earlier in the year on the rupee. that has stabilized. how much more pressure will that put back on? >> i think india will come under a little bit of pressure, but as far as improvements in the real economy is concerned, we have seen the current account adjusting at the very, very rapid pace. we have seen financing being secured for this year and potentially also for part of next year as far as the deficit is concerned. so our sense is that probably it's going to be one of the better performers in the fragile five countries which have large current account deficits. >> yeah, but it's -- the rupee comes under appreciate injury. won't the central bank feel obliged to put up rates further, therefore, restricting growth?
4:17 am
>> at this particular juncture, i think inflation could be a bigger driver of trade moving higher. right now, the drivers of inflation are a little bit more temporary. but if we start seeing inflation expectations moving up, there might be a more stronger case for higher rates. that is not our base case, but it's certainly nonnegligible in terms of scenarios. >> good to see you. thanks indeed for joining us. still to come on the show, as the yen hits that five-year low against the euro and the six-month low against the dollar, how long can the weakness in the currency last? the next guest says tlis still a lot of scope to the upside in dollar/yen. we'll talk about it and get more when we come back.
4:18 am
4:19 am
4:20 am
as the value of bitcoin hits record highs, one man has been left staring into a landfill wondering where it all went wrong. uka worker james howell bought 75,000 bitcoins back in 2009 for next to nothing. but he disposed of the computer hard drive that contained the currency after spilling a drink on it with no idea how costly
4:21 am
that decision might be. with the value of bitcoin reaching $1,000 this week, he realized he disposed of the currency now worth 4.6 million pounds. >> i put that drive into the black bag that it went into the landfill site with, i thought to myself, this is a bad idea. >> we've all done it, but perhaps not to the same value. what's the worst bit of information you've ever lost, a photograph, bookwork? let us know with an e-mail, worldwide@cnbc.com, or tweet@krtweet @cnbcwex or direct to me @rosswestgate. protesters in thailand, more than 1 ,000 demonstrators barged b into the compound at the headquarters. opponents of the prime minister have occupied and disrupted
4:22 am
several key ministries this week. they've been incensed by withdrawn amnesty bill earlier in the month that would have allow the pm's ex to return to the country without facing corruption charges. and standard & poors is sticking to its guns on china. it's affirmed the country's credit rating. the agency cited china's growth and solid debt models, but said it could lower the model fess beijing fails to follow through on promised reforms. who is it going to be? five global insurance firms have reportedly sent their final bids into citigroup. they're willing to pay up to $2 billion to get exclusive rights to distribute their products in asian branches. the business is expected to bring in up to $10 billion in revenue. metlife, aia, prudential, manulife and awda group are all in the money.
4:23 am
some americans just apparently couldn't wait for black friday to shop, so several stories such as macy's, best buy and k-mart opened doors on thanksgiving. the national retail federation estimates 1140 million people are going to shop over the holiday weekend, a slight tick up from last year. but if you don't want to brave them all, shop from the comfort of your couch. ibm says as of 9:00 p.m. eastern, thanksgiving online shopping was up 1 11% from last year, mobile traffic up 31%, with smartphones accounting for a quarter of all the online traffic. now, the obama administration is making a big change to health ca care.g care.gov. it's twitching from verizon to hp after outages across the system. the centers for medicare and
4:24 am
medicaid services which oversees healthcare.gov says its contract was set to end in march, but they started taking new bids. the white house has promised to have the site working smoothly for most users by this weekend. verizon stock in frankfurt down around 0.2%. hewlett packard up 0.2%. still to come, uk home builders got hit hard after the bank of england's surprise by scrapping the lending scheme for mortgage finance. we'll look at the latest mortgage data, discuss the implications of that move and get into the latest currency moves, as well.
4:25 am
4:26 am
4:27 am
down to a five-year low against the euro today after the bank of japan governor said the japanese central bank had no
4:28 am
plan to monetize monetary policy. he did stress japan is aimed solely at meeting its 2% inflation targets. the announcement came in october. dollar/yen meanwhile is at a six-month low against the dollar at 102.61. orich, good to see you. dollar/yen, have we finally consolidated a break above 100? >> yeah, i think so. the market was very concerned about not reaching the inflation target. and still, a lot of people or most of the participants i think believe that 2% is a very ambitious goal. but at least they see it's going in the right direction.
4:29 am
something that is a crucial part of abe-nomics, and the market now is considering what they desperately need, a weaker yen. confidence to at least get some high inflation numbers in the future. >> so if we stay above 1100 by the year-end, where does that set us up for 2014? >> if you look at the japanese trade performance, what japan needs is not only a high dollar/yen level, but a weakening of the yen. the boj and the government will have the current position where they have to act in some way or the other. therefore, i am thinking we are
4:30 am
seeing a trend of weakening yen. i am quite confident that we close this year above the 100 mark. >> as we say, five-year lows against the euro. five-year lows against the pound, as well. it's putting japan at quite a competitive advantage, particularly against korea. so what happens to the korean won in response? >> well, yes, certainly, certainly. in terms of price competitiveness, japan is gaining. certainly something a lot of people in korea are understandably afraid of and something which is raising concern. but i would argue that this gain in price competitiveness is only slowly and gradually gaining. so from a fundamental point of view, it's not such a desire for
4:31 am
many in the market as those that fear it. >> thanks for that. have a nice weekend. we have more data out of the uk. mortgage lending. 1.2 billion versus september 1.11 billion. the gross mortgage lending figures at the high since 2008. mortgage approvals, some thought it would tick higher to around 69,000. nevertheless, those mortgage approvals still the highest since february 2008. consumer credit, versus september's increase of 1.1 billion. it was forecast up 8.8 billion. consumer credit slightly weaker than we thought the jump in that. and lending to nonfinancial firms, 1.1 billion versus september's 1.7 billion. net consumer lending, 1.7 billion versus september's 2.2.
4:32 am
so consumer credit a little less than in september. we have a tick higher in mortgage approvals. james joining us with his thoughts. james knightly. james, good to see you. so look, these mortgage approval levels now, we've got around 67,000. is that a sustainable, healthy level? >> yeah, i think it is. we're going to continue pushing higher. also, you know, house prices are gaining momentum in any case. so i think we are on course for an ongoing gradual improvement in the housing market. >> yeah. house builders fell heavily yesterday on the back of the announcement that the bank of england is scrapping funding for lending schemes to provide chief of finance. in reality, is it going to have any impact at all? the figures, citigroup had these figures. the sls was 4.4 billion in the
4:33 am
last year. just 1.1 billion in the second quarter of this year. >> if you look at those lending numbers, they haven't been perhaps as good as people have been looking for. so that perhaps offers some encouragement and the underlying health of the sector is moving in the right direct, anyway. but i think it has helped with the margin. it has certainly helped to lower and drive down borrowing costs. the average mortgage rates in the uk have fallen about 1100 basis points since september 2012. >> i think that's a number of factors. house prices rising, as well, makes banks more likely to start lending more. certainly the margin has been
4:34 am
funding. i don't think it's going to be terrific for housing. and moving more to the small business sector. >> yeah. talking about house prices, nationwide came out today on their measure, house prices up 0.6% in november. 6.5% higher than they were in november last year. the governor said, look, we're keeping an eye on things. we're not worried. what is your view of the price of houses? >> i think, you know, obviously, you've got an employment market which has been pretty well. the uk has rated over 1.1 million jobs in the last year. there will be more demand, more willing, more want to go buy, as well. given the lack of supply, those house price moves are going to continue to push higher. where it gets more interesting for the bank of england is where they're starting to look at these macro policy where they're trying to cut back on more risky lending. it's being seen more broadly.
4:35 am
in the likes of canada and new zealand, too. >> james, just stay there. we talked about funding for lending in the mortgage finance. >> we've seen a remarkable recovery in that sector. the bottom line is these companies are the ones creating the new jobs in the uk economy. >> james, i just ran through the decline in funding for lending. is it going to make much of a difference? >> the margin, it probably will. they're making it cheaper fop for banks to lend against the small businesses. so it may at the margin increase lending capacity to that sector. they really need to see the demand for pick up. it really isn't right there.
4:36 am
what we need to see is a broadening strength of the uk domestic economy to actually require the borrowing to come in and fund the investment that's probably going to be required in the next few years. >> that requires bigger and medium sized businesses to invest. >> yeah, i think so. it's not exports or government spending leading weakness in gdp. it's investment. investment spending. so we need to see that pick up to drive the uk economy forward in the next couple of years. >> the next thing we're waiting for is the autumn statement next week. clearly growth will be better than opi was originally predicting. what do you think the chancellor will do with a bit of slack he's got, if anything? >> i don't think he's going to do all that much. i'm not expecting a big give away. we're still a bit away from that election in 2016. so i think he mae keep that back until march next year.
4:37 am
generally, he's going to have more money to play with and try to generate more of a message that his fiscal austerity measures, whatever they were, are start to go work and bear fruit now. >> they are clearly concerned and the political ground has been taken a bit from them about labor about the squeeze, real wages, because inflation is higher than the average earnings at the moment. do you think they'll come up with some policy to try and alleviate that or i mean, will actually now say we're in favor of the stronger pound? >> yeah. i think in general if we're looking at that, it seems to be more about increasing the tax allowance, the liberal democrats and the conservatives have been talking about, as well, to help the low income people and give them more of their money back. >> we'll see what happens. james, thanks very much for that.
4:38 am
meanwhile, cnbc is told he's disappointed by the downgrade of the country's credit rating by s & p but insists he is working on financial reform. shop till you trop, americans hit the stores in droves in search of steals and deals on the new starting day of the holiday shopping season, black thursday. and hands off our wheat, bancorp shares plummet after a bid of $2 million is blocked saying it's just not in the nation's interest. europe equities are very flat. the ftse mib down 0.25%.
4:39 am
bond yield tick higher today in the uk. treshy yields back trading today. on the currency market, it's been about yen weakness. dollar/yen, 102.33. there's been five-year lows against both the pound and the euro. sterling/dollar, 1.6324. we're not far away from the 1.6380 level, which is the highest of the year for the pound against the dollar. shares meanwhile in india are on the rise ahead of gdp numbers out later today. growth in the july to september quarter is estimated to tick up to 4.6% on the year, according to a reuters poll. it will come on the back of manufacturing as well as a slight pick up in agricultural.
4:40 am
it could mean growth under 5%. corus is still losing money, attracting criticism that it was made not the right move. whether the deal was in hindsight too expensive. >> it was expensive. and in a way, it's like buying a house. if you feel that house is the one you want because it fits in, gives you global position, it puts you in the european market which you could not have addressed and gives you capacity which at that time was crucial, we were on 5 million company in
4:41 am
india and this gave us about 20 million. so it was a high price. which is unfortunate. maybe a few years if from now, i hope we can put our feed up and say it was tough during that time. >> are we approaching a situation where we might have to consider selling all or part of the company? will it boil down to that? >> i understand very slowly things are turning around. i think there are many things that corus probably needs to do. >> what does corus need to do? >> it's been a traditional
4:42 am
europe facing company. and while the u.s. has been coming out of the recession, europe is still flat or down. and i think the company needs to look at different markets, including the emerging markets as the market for its products. >> the nano has been your pet project. but since its launch in 2009, it has lagged behind in sales but people have shunned the nano because of the perception of the car. did you think think consumers in india would react this way? >> no, i didn't. think probably had some help in doing so. i always felt the nano should have been marketed towards the owner of a two wheeler because it was conceived of giving the
4:43 am
people -- affordable, not cheapest. not by me, but by the company that marketed it. i think that's unfortunate. we are endeavoring to relaunch the car, not as the cheapest car, but in the image that it is. >> as a smart city car? >> as a smart car, an inexpensive car. it's more popular car than the nano has proved to be. i think it's because it's been marketed somewhat up market as a trendy car. >> so you got the marketing aspect wrong? >> the marketing went wrong, absolutely. >> do you think the nano can finally take off in india? >> a relaunch, i know with some
4:44 am
differences which we're trying to incorporate, yes, i do. maybe many ways to get it relaunched and reestablished. it may be it gets launched in another country like indonesia where it doesn't have the stigma. and then its new image comes back to india or it could be as a changed product to get marketed in europe. there's a lot of interest in nano outside of india. >> so there are plans to take the nano outside of india. >> yes, yes. >> now, sushi, anyway? fushiko kushido has more for us from tokyo. i hope they're serving it up fresh. yeah. the second largest sushi holings
4:45 am
company will merge by the end of next year. plus their annual revenues together, they'll have a top line of about $1.1 billion surpassing the biggest name in the business. they have known for providing low prices, something one plate of sushi for under $1 is. they have about 390 stores across japan. conveyer belt sushi restaurant keeps prices low by using robot toes make their sushi. fish and rice prices are on the rise and a competition in the domestic market is heating up. the tokyo stock exchange halted shares temporarily after the reports, but genki shares rose 21% and kappa rose 3.8% today. >> robots make the sushi? >> yep. >> okay. who knew.
4:46 am
>> it's great. you can pick whatever you want. >> okay. all right. there we go. i didn't know that. thanks for that. i'll have to fly out to tokyo to try it. have a good weekend. meanwhile, what's on the agenda over the weekend? china's official pmi figures and creative trade. then on monday, korean manufacturing and pmi and india also releases inflation figures. still to come, i don't think we're going to have any robots. the holiday season kicks off with thanksgiving. where will people be going? we'll have a sector on travel trends for this time of year. hi honey, did you get the toaster cozy?
4:47 am
4:48 am
yep. got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. so i knit until it was full. you'd be crazy not to. is that nana? [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping th the reliability of fedex.
4:49 am
now, the value of bitcoins hit fresh record highs, one man has been left staring into a landfill. james howell bought 7.5 thousand bitcoins in 2009. but he finally disposed of the hard drive containing the currency a month ago after spilling the drink on the computer.
4:50 am
he had no idea how costly the decision would be. with the value of bitcoin reaching $1,000 this week, he realized he had disposed of a digital currency now worth 4.6 million pounds. >> i put that into the black bag that it went into the landfill with, i thought to myself, this is bad idea. >> very expensive idea. and we've done it all, but perhaps not to that same value. we want to know what's the worst digital file that you have ever lost? photograph? music? perhaps that all-important piece of work? let us know your thoughts and what's happened to you. e-mail us, worldwide@cnbc.com, tweet to me @cnbcwex or direct to me @rosswestgate. as the holiday season is officially kicking off in the united states, expedia says the top destinations have been dominated by cities.
4:51 am
andrew. >> good to see you. thanks so much indeed for joining us. which city is where? where are people traveling to? >> new york, berlin, london, paris. it's the old classics that people are flocking to. the other thing we're seeing a massive increase in, it's proven popular, those that have christmas markets. it's been over a 100% increase in germany. >> perhaps the most extraordinary success, birmingham. >> yeah. about 1 left lane% hotel bookings. they put a big christmas market on this year and they're reaping the dividends. >> and germany. for those who don't want cities, what are sort of the summer -- well, the sun, winter sun destinations? >> we're seeing some combination of things, really. we're seeing in asia in
4:52 am
particular, people aren't going away as much as they have perhaps in the past. in europe, we're seeing people flocking to sydney. sydney is up 100% year on year. we don't know whether the cricket is something to promote australia as a destination. thailand, we've seen a real uptick in demand, too. >> talk about technology. we'll be looking at this on what people are doing, how they're shopping on fashion and other items. how much has gone on to tablets or mobile? >> it's phenomenal. we're seeing at expedia 200 downloads of our app every minute at the moment. which is crazy. something like 80% of under 35 claim that they've booked something using a mobile device or managed their trip. this is the other on trend we're seeing, increasingly, people using their mobile phones to take the tren out of it.
4:53 am
we do when to check out from the hotel. i was interested in that part, how much more are people using mobile when they get somewhere to search or book restaurants or other things. >> yeah. it's something which a lot of people are doing more of. and we see a combination of behaviors. we see not only people talking about things more on social media, so about 70% of people post stuff on social forums. but 50% of people who are reading that stuff or inspired about destination. but we're also seeing people using mobile particularly to take the pain out of travel. so they're using it for boarding costs more and more. so at the airport you have to worry about looking through your pockets to find where you put that piece of paper. >> i shouldn't say as i did do a mobile boarding card and i put it on the scanner and i couldn't read it off the machine. they just waved me through. >> it shouldn't happen. but i mean, i think
4:54 am
increasingly, you can find out stuff like where is the shortest cue, or you can manage your e itinera itinerary. >> you talk about a lot of travelers combining business trips with personal trips. yeah. >> how is that working out? they get the flight pace of the business and do they stay in the same hotel? >> they tend to stay in the same place. it's a tradeoff, really. it works well for the country because the employees taking time off coming and going. it works well for the consumers because the cost is shared. we're seeing a trend weak. people are worried about taking holiday increasingly, particularly in asia and the u.s. where people are not taking their full holiday entitlement. so increasingly, they're merging business trips and holidays. they can take advantage of the business trips to get heesh your
4:55 am
time in. unfortunately it means people aren't switching off. more .more people are feeling like they haven't had a holiday when they get back, either. despite dire predictions that heavy winds would ground balloons at the macy's thanksgiving day parade, the tradition continued without a hitch. >> thankfully, the 3.5 million people who lined the streets and braved the cold, not knowing if the stars of the annual thanksgiving day parade would show up weren't disappointed. >> so much fun, though. i've always wanted to see the macy's thanksgiving day parade. >> is there any part of your body that you can feel right now? >> no. >> the only hiccup in an otherwise perfect parade was spider-man's left arm punctured and slightly deflated after it snagged a tree rounding the corner. thanksgiving traditions continued across the country, even after a wet and windy storm
4:56 am
canceled hundreds of flights yesterday. but weather headaches didn't dampen the holiday spirit. in washington, the first family had a traditional dinner at the white house today, including turkey, ham and nine kinds of pie. but before sitting down to eat, the president called troops to wish them a happy holiday and thank them. he praised their service today. >> no matter our differences, we're all part of one american family. >> in atlanta, volunteers offered hot meals, free clothing and hair cuts to more than 6,000 in need. and in santa barbara, 1,000 people showed up to help send care packages to victims of typhoon haiyan. in honor of hanukkah, one new york 9-year-old decided to invent a turkey shaped menorah
4:57 am
called a menurkey. no parade was quite as grand as macy's. >> i think it's pretty awesome. >> thanksgiving and hanukkah probably won't fall again on the same day for maybe 70,000 years or so. so if you have dreams of that turkey cranberry stuffing, you better make that dream a reality. still to come, s&p's mark kraemer will join us in around 15 minutes after a downgrade from the netherlands, but an update just the same. we'll find out more from our guests coming up in the second hour of "worldwide exchange" right after this. hi honey, did you get the toaster cozy?
4:58 am
4:59 am
yep. got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. so i knit until it was full. you'd be crazy not to. is that nana? [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.
5:00 am
you're watching "worldwide exchange." dutch finance minister tells cnbc he's disappoint onned by the downgrade of the credit rating from s&p, but insists he is working on structural reform. it's better news for spain. s&p raised the outlook there to stable. and cyprus gets a ratings hike. we'll hear from standard & poors first on the show in ten minutes. stop till you drop. americans hit the stores in
5:01 am
droves in search of steals and deals. and hands off our wheat. grain corp. shares plummet after arcelor midland's bid saying it's not in the nation's interest. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> standard & poors has cut its credit rating for the netherlands from aaa to aa plus. they add today country's growth prospects are now weaker than anticipated. speaking earlier on "squawk box," the dutch finance minister gave his reaction. >> i take these ratings seriously because the markets take them seriously. as i said, growth expectations for the netherlands are the same that we have ourselves on which
5:02 am
we base our budget. and it just confirms the need for us to push forward some of these reforms so we can get bigger and better growth figures. of course, you know, the other two rating agencies have only recently confirmed the aaa status for the netherlands and now s&p has downgraded us to aa plus. i'm disappointed by that fact. >> meanwhile, s&p had better news for cypress as it raised the country's sovereign credit rate to go b minus/b. adding the nation's external position was improving. we'll be joined by the s&p chief ratings officers moritz kraemer very shortly, in around 12 minutes time here on cnbc. meanwhile, i hope you had a great thanksgiving. happy hanukkah, as well. we are back to a shortened
5:03 am
trading day in the united states today. the dow is currently trading 38 points, 37 points above fair value. starting at record highs, of course. the nasdaq is up at 13-point highs. and the s&p 500 at the moment is about two points above fair value. joining us is andrew goldberg. good to see you, andrew. a lot of people have been worried about the extension we've got on these markets. the s&p up just about 27% so far this year. are we now in an extended rally? are we at the tail end of the rally? >> yeah. it's hard to call it an end to the rally because there's nothing imminent on the immediate forefront that should cause the markets to go down. i will say, though, that valuations have become a little bit stretched. markets have run a little bit ahead of the fundamentals. but -- >> which valuation are you using? because there's a big discussion about which metrics are the right ones and some say it looks primed and other metrics look
5:04 am
expensive. >> it's more a question of the time frame. you can look at price to earnings, price to flow, and it all depends on the time frame. the fact is, stocks are trading pretty close to fair value. i think the important thing for investors are markets tend to stop going up when they reach fair value. if you look historically after major periods of multiple sxans expansi expansion, markets sometimes run two more years. so it's going to be less about multiple expansion and more about earnings. >> it's all been about rerating. >> a lot. >> it's hard to repeat that two years in a row. >> it is. i'll go out on a limb and say it wouldn't be repeated next year. but specations for another 27% for next year, probably not going to happen. >> we've had earnings growth, is that going to be predicated on top line revenue?
5:05 am
because we -- this is a fear that the benefit we've had in margins has peaked out. >> it almost has to. that doesn't mean margins will go down. they're sticky. companies hold on to those efficiencies. but the good news is, this is the first time i can sit here .tell you japan is growing, europe is recessing, the u.s. has continued to grow despite a number of hurdles that have been thrown in front of it. so there is room for earnings to grow. the question is how much and what will the markets -- how will the markets price that in? i see a strong, single digit year. >> between now and the new year, though, one presumes that we're going to squeeze the last bid to -- like getting them out of the pile. we're going to get the last crumbs. >> i'll take every crumb we can get. you know, but that said, it is important that investors do take an opportunity to rebalance as it presents itself. the markets have come a long way
5:06 am
and what we advocate for is investing. so if your equity portion of your portfolio has grown to be extended itself, maybe it's a good opportunity to peel back a little bit. >> presumably the value of it is growing because equities have gone up. >> yes. so -- >> but i'm not sure i want to be in bonds with the fed tapering. so we'll talk about that. stay with us. plenty more to come from andrew. we'll also by joined by s&p chief sovens rating officer moritz kraemer. tune in on tuesday. michelle ka russo will join us. >> were you shopping yesterday online? >> no. i was traveling and then we have a thanksgivingkuha dinner. some americans apparently couldn't wait until the clock struck midnight.
5:07 am
several stores opened their doors on thanksgiving. the national retail federation simts 1100 million people will shop over the weekend, up slightly from last year. you could shop from the comfort of your couch. of course, ibm digital analytics say as of 9:00 p.m. eastern, thanksgiving online shopping was up around 1 1% from last year. mobile traffic up 311% with smartphones accounting for a quarter of all online traffic. and i don't know whether they split that out between phones and tablets. anyway, groups, meanwhile, of walmart workers and supporters are planning protests at 1500 u.s. stores today. they're hoping to draw attention to what they believe are too low wages. protesters believe the $17 billion walmart made in profit last year should allow the retailer to boost pay to what
5:08 am
they call livable levels. very few of the protests are walmart workers, but claim that's because of the fear of workers that fear retaliation for criticizing the company. we're going to be talking about what's been going on over this thanksgiving shopping season. meanwhile, european equities and u.s. futures, we'll just recap that for you indicating we're going to get a positive start of record closing highs for the dow and the s&p on wednesday. and the fass dak which, of course, is up at 13-year highs at the moment. so we're waited higher on the futures. european equities today have tried to call higher. the ftse yesterday in the u.s. absence was just up five points. currently up 14 points. very flat for the xetra dax and the cac 40. the ftse mib down 0.2%. on the bond markets, ten-year treasury yields today are a little bit higher.
5:09 am
2.75% is the yield on the ten-year. we had dipped down to below 2.7% earlier in the week. it's going to be a shortened trading session today stateside. on the currency markets, our focus once again is really on the yen weakening. dollar/yen at the moment is 102.24. we've been up to 102.61. a six-month low for the yen against the dollar. the japanese currency against both the euro and pound, as well. euro/dollar, 1.3610. and on commodities, keep your eye on gold. spot gold, 1245 today, but having its biggest monthly drop around five months, down 6% for the month of november. off around 25% for the year. meanwhile, standard & poors has been busy this morning, it's raised its rating for cyprus, downgraded its outlook for netherlands. moritz kraemer will join us after the break. ya know, with new fedex one rate
5:10 am
you can fill that box and pay one flat rate. i didn't know the coal thing was real. it's very real... david rivera. rivera, david. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.
5:11 am
5:12 am
as the value of bitcoin has hit a record high, one man has been left staring into a landfill wondering where it's all gone wrong. he bought 7,500 bitcoin for
5:13 am
essentially next to nothing. but he disposed of the computer containing the currency. in fact, he disposed of the hard drive just a few months after spilling a drink on the computer. but he had no idea how coastly that decision would be. the welshman realized he disposed of a digital currency now worth 4.6 million pounds. >> at the time i put that drive into the black bag that it went into the landfill site with, i thought to myself, this is a bad idea. >> yeah. not the best idea. but we have done it, perhaps not to the same sort of value. we were asking what's the worst digital file you've ever lost, photographs, music, perhaps that piece of work or that excellent article university inwritten for newspapers that you accidentally deleted. if you want to join the conversation here on "worldwide exchange," e-mail us, tweet @cnbcwex or direct to me @rosswestgate. we'll take a short break.
5:14 am
still to come, in store or online, u.s. holiday shoppers spend more on their pcs and tablets at the mall. we'll get into that. plus we'll get the latest view from moritz kraemer. we'll get their views on that and the u.s. dle a saturday crowd. ♪ [ male announcer ] the parking lot helps by letting us know who's coming. the carts keep everyone on the right track. the power tools introduce themselves. all the bits and bulbs keep themselves stocked. and the doors even handle the checkout so we can work on that thing that's stuck in the thing. [ female announcer ] today, cisco is connecting the internet of everything. so everyone goes home happy. stick with innovation.
5:15 am
stick with power. stick with technology. get the new flexcare platinum from philips sonicare and save now. philips sonicare.
5:16 am
5:17 am
a recap of the headlines today, s&p shapes things up with a downgrade from the netherlands. there's nothing for spain and cyprus. u.s. shoppers hit the stores early as national retailers in the u.s. deal ahead of black friday. and grain growers in australia are stunned as the country's treasurerer blocks a u.s. bid for graincorp. now, the comedians for online shopping suggest the connected shopper takes the lion's share of sales. a social media manager at prime joins us. hello, david. hope you had a good day yesterday. >> i did. >> great. look, does it matter -- >> thanks for having me, ross. >> does the cyber monday matter
5:18 am
any more, because everybody is shopping every day online. >> yeah. you know, i know a lot of brands are doing a cyber november where they're offering their deals earlier. but, you know, i really feel that a lot of people, consumers in general, are separating thanksgiving and the holiday season and they're looking for deals immediately after thanksgiving. i really don't think black friday .cyber monday is going away anytime soon. >> how big is mobile been? actually, do you separate that out between literally phones, smartphones and tablets? >> oh, absolutely. you know, mobile is growing on a yearly basis. and you absolutely northeast need to separate smartphones and tablets. definitely a different shopping experience. consumers are using it for all phases of buying, whether it's researching, looking up reviews or buying the product. so definitely growing in importance on a yearly basis. >> was the best and the most wanted shopping app, david, for this season?
5:19 am
>> you know, definitely mobile comparison shopping apps are in high demand. anything from price grabber to amazon price check. anywhere where you can research a product through multiple online retailers is going to be in high demand this year. >> and you've got a list of the most wanted holiday lists. this is based on what you're hearing on social media. >> yes. >> hit us with a couple of the most wanted things. >> sure. so the two that we found were the most popular were practical. you would think maybe iphones or ipads, but cash and gift cards were the two in highest demand. people looking for things that are practical. the iphone actually was the most popular, number three, from an electronics standpoint. the iphone volume specifically. but it was interesting to see that a lot of practicals have a gift and were in the highest demand. >> i just noticed justin bieber tickets, the fourth most wanted thing. >> yes. you know, it was kind of
5:20 am
surprising and a little bit upsetting. we were anticipating maybe the ipad would be number four or even clothes would be number four. but, you know, actually, a lot of people on social media that were voicing what they want for the holiday season on were 18 and younger. so definitely helped to influence the reason why justin bieber tickets were number four on that list. >> and the british band one direction is top of the -- >> yeah. >> harry styles, clearly very popular in the united states. >> yes. exactly. and it was interesting, too, to see for both movies and tv shows is that there was a nostalgia factor there, too. older tv shows like "friends" and "boy meets world" were airs in the '90s were in high demand. older movies like "little mermaid" and "toy story" were in high demand, as well. >> interesting, ps4 is the most
5:21 am
wanted game console out of those. what do you do? how do you use it? >> you know, it was a little graphic that we did, but we're trying to convey the point how important listening is for brands. it's really important for brands to keep a pulse on what people are saying about their brand .their products and use that information to help structure their marketing campaign. by getting inside of what consumers are saying and what they're interested in, it can help structure your marketing campaigns and catering to the consumer. >> and can a brand -- they feel this chat going on. how does a brand try and engage with that converted ultimately into sales? >> you know, it's a matter of being able to communicate with the consumer. and somebody is discussing your brand on twitter or facebook, making sure you're taking that insight into consideration, helping to structure your marketing campaignes and establishing a two-way communication between you and the consumer. >> and you were talking about
5:22 am
the brands, what were the brands that stood out in terms of fashion and apparently? >> nike and ugg were the top two. louis vuitton generated high demand. nike wasn't a surprise. shoes and clothing were two of the most popular items in demand. and nike, being a product that sells both types of clothing and shoes definitely, you know, was no surprise that they were the number one brand there. >> david, finally, how would you describe the interest and the sense of, you know, interest in this is comparison to last year? >> you know, in terms of -- >> just in terms of engagement and people's aptitude to want to buy and, you know, sort of the strength of it. >> social media is definitely growing as a channel on a yearly basis in terms of, you know, what people looking for products or communicating what they want from a product standpoint. and online and mobile in general is continuing to grow on a
5:23 am
yearly basis and being utilized for all forms of the buying process. and we anticipate that to grow even more as the years progress. >> all right, david, good to see you. have a good day today. thanks for joining us early after thanksgiving. we appreciate it. david norman, social media manager. andrew goldberg is still with us, as well. the extraordinary thing, i can't believe people -- the number of people that went shopping on thanksgiving. >> leave it to america. it's unbelievable. >> well, i'll tell you, i don't understand that. >> i don't get it. >> big lunch and then let's go shopping? >> at least no one got trampled so far. >> no. let's be thankful for that. how do you assess the health of the u.s. consumer, bearing in mind that consumption is a normal part of the u.s. economy? >> it is. there's a few things we look at. the first one is overall incomes. they're growing, not growing fast enough, but there are a couple other important points with the stock market at a new all-time record highs the total household net worth. if you take every household in
5:24 am
america, add up their net worth, it's at an all-time high. the amount of interest costs that people are paying to service their debt bass lower interest rates because they've incurred less news over the last few years is actually near a three decade low. so it was at an all-time high in 2007. now it's much lower. so of every dollar you earn, you get to keep more instead of throwing it away. the health of the consumer is looking good. >> it's only going to go one way now, though, isn't it? >> the cost of debt. >> it may not happen quickly. >> it may not happen quickly. i think there is room for that cost of debt to rise. but the first step in deleveraging cycle for the consumer is they've had got a huge pile of debt. in order to chip away from that, you have to chip it away so there's something left over. consumers are ravenous in america. i wouldn't bet against them. >> no. this is looking at the performance this year.
5:25 am
the dow up, the nasdaq up 33%, the s&p up 26%. how big is it going to be next year in terms of politics and the fed? >> i'll tell you one thing that's interesting is when the fed first mentioned the prospects for tapering, that was in may, the 22nd of may earlier this year. stocks sold off, so did bonds. interest rates went up. by the time september came around, the 18th of september that we all thought tapering would occur, interest rates were still high. the equity markets had completely recovered and, in fact, were up in advance of that. so i think markets have finally taken on the fed's message that tapering is not tightening. even if they tapered, let's say from 85 billion per month of bond buying all the way down to 50, they would still be injecting on average over a year 700 billion dollars into the system. so it's not tightening. and i think that the markets will be able to digest that.
5:26 am
by the way, the markets have dealt with some serious political hurdles and some serious fiscal drag. >> there will be less fiscal drag -- well, we hope there will be less fiscal drag unless there's a real problem in washington the first of the year. tapering is not tightening. it's an interesting point. because there is a view that actually the market is binary. >> yeah. it's kind of interesting. so far throughout this year, on days where there was good news, good economic news, the market was up an average of eight basis point. on days where there was bad news or days that were defined by bad news, the markets were up even more. and the whole idea being -- >> that's kind of are you hooked. >> are you hooked on the drug. there will always be a period of withdraw. but ultimately, the markets will decide that it's better to be healthy and not need that medicine from the fed than it is to be reliant and dependent on
5:27 am
that. you'd rather have earnings growth, you'd rather have an economy that's robust than the fed constantly injecting that medicine. >> and it's okay if bond yields are going up for that reason. >> it's a different dynamic. it would be a different dynamic. from here, low interest rates as they move higher, that's happening because of prospects for an improving economy and less fed manipulation. that's okay. that's okay for equity markets. >> all right. andrew, thanks for that. andrew goldberg. we'll take a short break. still to come, plenty more, of course. move over, thanksgiving. black friday is here. but as u.s. retailers open their doors on the biggest shopping day of the year, has the growth killed the day for main street retailers? we'll be in the malls in america's heartland right after this. avo: the volkswagen "sign then drive"
5:28 am
sales event is back. which means it's never been easier to get a new 2014 jetta. it gets an impressive 34 highway mpg and comes with no charge scheduled maintenance. and right now you can drive one home for practically just your signature. sign. then drive. get zero due at signing, zero down, zero deposit, and zero first month's payment on any new 2014 volkswagen. hurry, this offer ends december 2nd. for details, visit vwdealer.com today
5:29 am
5:30 am
you're watching "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. the dutch finance minister tells cnbc he's disappointed by the downgrade of the s&p's credit rating, but insists he's working on structural reformes. it's better news for spain with the s&p raising its outlook to stable. we'll hear from standard & poors first. shop till you drop. americans hit the stores in droves in search of steals and deals on the new starting day of
5:31 am
the holiday shopping season, black thursday. and hands off our wheat. grain corp. shares plummet. australia blocks archer daniel midla midland's bid saying it's not in the nation's interest. standard & poors have cut its ratings on the netherlands. it has kept the nation's outlook stable adding the nation's growth prospects were weaker than expected. it raised that country's sovereign credit rating and revised its outlook on spain from stable to negative. joining us for more was moritz kraemer. moritz, good to speak to you. thank you very much for joining us. >> good morning to you. >> talk to us about your concern
5:32 am
about the netherlands and the core reason for this ratings drop and why you've actually then put an outlook on stable. >> well, before starting talking about the downgrade, i think i want to reiterate and remind the viewers that the rating is aa plus, which is the second highest on a scale of 21. so i encourage everyone to contemplate that rather than just the action down. but what drove the downgrade this morning, as you pointed out in your trailer, we think that the key factor here to watch is the growth potential of the netherlands. we see that those in recent history and in our projections, that the economic dynamism of the dutch economy will lag behind that where we would usually expect for sovereigns and economies at that level of development and prosperity. so this has been the immediate trigger for the rating action
5:33 am
that we published this morning. to aa plus. we think, however, that the policy consensus is strong enough to bring sort of the needed adjustment about on the fiscal side, on the budgetary side, and that basically is reflected in our stable outlook that we have assigned. remember the outlook on the formerly aaa rating on the netherlands has been on a negative outlook for almost two years. since we put the rating on negative in january 2012, we had repeatedly downgraded our growth forecast and this has culminated into the action this morning. >> he said he was disappointed, but they would ensure they would act to put the reforms in place they need to.
5:34 am
>> we have a stable look. the consensus in the netherlands remains strong in favor of prudent macroeconomic policy making. so, therefore, yes, we are in the same camp. we believe that the commitment is there. >> raise your outlook on spain to stable from negative. what is happening to the credit metrics in spain? >> what we're seeing is spain is two developments which we consider both stabilizing. one is that the spanish economy has made some notable progress in the rebalancing of its sterm sort of deficits. we actually forecast for this year a current account surplus of spain of -- which would be the first one since 1986. we also think that the economy is bottoming out, that the long, drawn out and deep recession is coming to an end. we see moderate growth in the coming year and in 2015.
5:35 am
but even with the growth rate somewhere sort of just over between 1 and 1.5, that would be the highest growth rate that spain has reported since the crisis began since 2007. so we think there are increasing signs that the risks have -- and that we now see a balance risk to the rating and do not expect that the rating would change within the next year. >> yeah. okay. so some relief for spain. i also want to talk about your concerns on france at the moment. this is a country that has a tenth of a negative growth in the last quarter, the pmis at the moment in contraction. you cut the country's credit rating to aa from aa plus. do you see any signs of difference in reform agenda or are things still getting worse for france? >> in general, i would argue that in the eurozone as a whole and then france is no exception here, the reduced pressure from the market is, of course,
5:36 am
positive but carries the risk of complacency. and complacency, i mean that policymakers think that, well, the worst is behind us, we've done it and we can basically sort of relax a little bit on our laurels. we, however, believe that in order to bring the eurozone crisis well and truly behind us, what is required is an enhancement of the growth potential of the economies in the euro area. for that, we still see the need for structural reforms to actually enhance the productivity and the employment ratio in the countries in the euro area. and everything that i've just said holds true for france. so i would frame it in that contents. >> moritz, this is andy from jpmorgan. one thing we're watching closely is the asset quality review, the stress tests coming up for european banks. how important is to outlook for a country like france or the netherlands is the progress or
5:37 am
lack of progress with respect to the banking union? >> it is certainly a very important event in 2014. it is part of our analysis that we look at our own assessment of what the congress tingent liability for the government could be, especially from the financial sector. here it is quite noteworthy that the so-called creditor countries in the core, like germany, like netherlands have had to incur higher bailout costs with their own financial creditor systems compared to, for example, spain. so we think that the -- as a quality review, as a very important element to restore if it's well done and incredibly done to restore more confidence in the financial market in the eurozone, which we still think is somewhat stressed. if you look at the clocked up transmission, monetary tran mission mechanism, was it the core, if you look at the large
5:38 am
target, two imbalances that still persist, we think there's still some way to go in the asset quality review can be important. now, if the aqr were to result in sort of recapitalization costs that had to be born by the states so we don't anticipate right now, indeed, the ratings could come under pressure. but as the stable outlook symbolized, we don't take this as our base case right now. >> okay. we'll see what happens. moritz, thanks indeed for joining us. don't forget on tuesday, michelle caruso cabrera will be speaking with the cipriot finance minister from washington. right now, the u.s. holiday shopping season is fully under way. this year, americans weren't waiting for the calendar to say black friday before hitting the stores and more. courtney reagan has been up bright and early. she's among the shoppers at the mall in dayton, ohio. so i take it, courtney, your
5:39 am
turkey has been put into -- is now being turned into soup and you're opening your wallet up. >> yeah xb that's exactly right, ross. i actually did go out and just hit one store last night. i was very curious to see what walmart looked like. walmart started these door buster deals at 6:00. another group of them rolled out at 8:00. i've got to tell you, the store was packed. it was pretty orderly, though. i think what the retailers are doing this year with these extended thanksgiving hours is really helping sort of spread out the traffic. the national retail federation expects 140 million folks will hit the stores this weekend. today is black friday even though we had those early store openings on thanksgiving. today is expected to be the biggest day of the year based on foot traffic. national retail federation looking for some 97.million people to hit the stores. a lot of folks we talked to said they're finding pretty good
5:40 am
deals. many of them came out last night, went home, took a rest and are back at it between this morning. now the stores here have been open for about ten hours. so a lot of on people going pretty strong. we expect it to pick up in the next couple of hours when the sun comes up. it is only about 5:30 in the morning here in dayton, ohio. >> i can't believe the number of people -- i can't believe first of all you went down to walmart on thanksgiving. but you were probably doing it as part of your job. i kind of get that. i can't believe number of people that do that. there's only a certain amount of time they can spend with their family in a house before they get itchy? >> yeah, that's exactly right. it is a bit of an american tradition, particularly black friday. and i think with thanksgiving, so much of the day is spent with family and you spend most of the day preparing the turkey, watching football. over time, especially the younger kids, that millennial shopper, ready to kind of get out of the house, get away from family perhaps or at least
5:41 am
change up the scenery. a lot of folks we see coming out on thanksgiving. >> amazing. >> they can't spend one day with their family without leaving the house, what is the whole point? >> or at least you split the time. >> court, thanks for that. have a good day down there and i hope courtney will be on the channel all day with reports there. meanwhile, joining us from l.a. is lauren ben deal, founder and president of savings.com. it's a weird time for you, i know. is it still thanksgiving day for you? i don't know whether you've gone to bed or are waking up? >> thanksgiving is over and looking forward to black friday now. >> what are we going to get from the consumer over if next four days. >> sure. some things will stay the same. the deal frenzy is as hot as it's ever been. probably more so.
5:42 am
but more people are opting to get away from the chaos and go for convenience. there are more deals available online than ever before. so people are using that to shop from the convenience of their own home. >> is anybody going to be out there paying full price for anything? >> some people, yes, sure, but very few. everybody knows there are amazing deals available right now. there are too many retailers selling too many things. consumers are tight and smart and well armed with information right now. so there are more deals than ever before. we saw a 70% increase in deals on savings.com last black friday from the previous year and we expect to see the same amount of volume this year, as well. >> what sort of things -- are we expecting an increase overall in sales? >> absolutely. the retail federation is
5:43 am
expecting to see a 4% increase in sales overall. more people are looking for deals. more people are shopping early and not waiting for black friday. we're seeing the u.s. start to trend more like our european sites where people shop in october and november and they don't wait for black friday. and we're seeing the same thing in the u.s., as well. >> what is the sort of things we'll see big ticket items on, electronics versus apparel? >> so it depends on the time of the year. the big ticket items, electronics, sporting goods have already been up quite a bit. those sales start earlier. apparel tends to be later. cyber monday, this coming monday, between, around december 15th. apparel and accessories kick in, as well. keep checking. get online. look for a deal before you buy anything. and we expect to see a very big
5:44 am
year this year, as well. >> loren, thanks very much indeed for that. by the way, we like the moustache. we just don't know whether it's from november or not. >> you're a smart man. it is for november. >> good man. good man. the key question is, are you going to keep it? >> we've got our holiday party december 7th and we all agreed to keep it through that. then it's going to be gone. my wife will be very happy. >> i missed it this year. i'm going to try and do it next year. >> you know about decem-beard, right? >> did you know that? you could add to it. >> this is the first i've heard of it. but you heard it here first. >> andy, is that the same thing, raising -- >> i think maybe it's for the boston red sox, keep those beards going. >> now you've ruined it for me. loren, thanks very much indeed
5:45 am
for that. >> absolutely. thank you. >> joining us from the west coast of america where it's rather early or late depending on where you're at. groups of walmart workers and supporters are planning protests at 1500 u.s. stores today. they're hoping to draw attention to what they believe are too low wages. protesterses believes the $17 billion that walmart made in profit last year should allow the retailer to boost pay to what they call livable levels. critics say very few of the protesters are actual walmart workers. the plan has countered that because of fear of retaliation for workers who criticize the company. walmart stock pretty flat in frankfurt. still to come, the white house has promised to have the troubled health insurance website up and running more smoothly for most americans by the weekend. but as that deadline nears, the government is making a big change for who's running healthcare.g healthcare.gov. details, coming up.
5:46 am
and some of the best offers of the year at the lexus december to remember sales event. this is thrsuit of perfection. ya know, with new fedex one rate
5:47 am
you can fill that box and pay one flat rate. how naughty was he? oh boy... [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping wi.
5:48 am
. the obama administration is making a big change to healthcare.gov as a big deadline looms for the online marketplace. hampton pearson is in washington with the details. morning, hampton. what is happening? >> how are you, ross? before i go through this story, if you or your viewers develop a
5:49 am
headache by the time i'm through with it, it's perfectly understandable. the federal agency in charge of overseeing health cave.gov says it's switching from verizon to hewlett packard as the web hosting trouble. verizon has hosted key parts of the online marketplace and served as the digital juncture to pass along information to it, the insurance companies. healthcare.gov has suffered a series of heckal glitches and outages. that led health .human services secretary kathleen sebelius to call the verizon ceo as well as sparking heavy criticism from both republicans and democrats in congress. now, the centers for medicare and medicaid services says its contract with caremark had been set to end last summer. hp was awarded the contract.
5:50 am
a spokesperson declined meant on whether the transition from terremark to hp would affect the website's operation. the obama administration has said it plans to have healthcare.gov working smoothly for most users this weekend. part of the fixes involve doubling the capacity to the site can handle 50,000 users at once. sources tell reuters there are concerns about the site's ability to handle that many users because of problems with the server and switches run by, you guess it it, very rison. got it? >> i need al ka seltzer, hampton. >> it is pretty amazing. and, again, there's both obviously very real problems for people trying to find out what healthcare.gov and obama care is
5:51 am
all about and the political fallout, as well. >> hampton, thank you for that and i hope you had a good day yesterday. >> thank you. >> thank you for that. still to come, november is ending on a high note for u.s. equities with a major indices sitting at new highs. will there be plenty of stocking stuffers? we'll get some early market insight from the cme and also our final thoughts from andy, as well.
5:52 am
5:53 am
5:54 am
futures say we're going to go higher this morning. the dow is currently some 37 points above fair value. 14 for the nasdaq. joining us is todd horwitz, founder of averagejoeoptions.com. andy goldberg is still with us, as well. todd, happy thanksgiving. i hope you had a good day. anything to stop the markets from moving higher? equities going higher? >> good morning, ross. good morning, andy. you know, if you look at it, maybe the tryptophan from the turkey will stop it. but i believe we're more in bubble territory here. you can't get in the way of it because there's no telling how much farther we can go. the only thing i do see is we are seeing whether the fed wants to taper or not taper. the interest rate markets, which is the biggest market in the world, is saying, you know what? we think interest rates should be higher so interest rates are going higher. so that's something that might put a little bit of a damper.
5:55 am
but the truth is, you really can't step in front of the market because it wants to go up, no matter what the wall of worry, no matter what's going on, the market continues to climb higher because of cheaper money. but if money gets more expensive, that could create heartburn in the market. >> it's funny. historically, this is both a long bull market. it's an incredibly strong one. we've got a chart up here that we put together that shows that into context. i guess one thing that i'm wondering about is this has been the most painful bull market maybe ever, do you think? because people have been waiting for that dip that never comes. >> well, that's a great point. i mean, this has been a market, the most rated rally ever. but i can if you're a bear, there might be some hope on the horizon because we now have the highest amount of retail trade since 2008. but we are getting a little bit long in the tooth and, you know, you cannot predict tops and bottoms.
5:56 am
the market right now says it still wants to go higher. i think we're in a bubble. but i'm certainly not going to try to pop the bubble on my own. i'm going to wait until it try toes let the air out itself. >> how do you make that measure about being in a bubble? what metric are you using? >> well, you know, you're looking at overall volume. you're looking at valuation. although we're saying if there were valuations a couple years ago. dallas whole mix. plus, the key is now we're getting participation from retail investors plus the bigger funds, the way that i see it, the way the tape shows, they're coming out of the -- moving into toilet paper and toothpaste, going into colgate, palmolive, johnson & johnson. you're seeing a risk from the big guys to the more safer guys with dividends. >> have a good lunch. when you're finished, i know you'll all be popping down to
5:57 am
walmart. thank you very much. that's it for "worldwide exchange" this month. coming up next, "squawk box" and the countdown to today's trading stateside. we hope you have a profitable day if you're working. it found out the doctor we needed was at st. anne's. wiggle your toes. [ driver ] and it got his okay on treatment from miles away. it even pulled strings with the stoplights. my ambulance talks with smoke alarms and pilots and stadiums. but, of course, it's a good listener too. [ female announcer ] today cisco is connecting the internet of everything. so everything works like never before.
5:58 am
5:59 am
good morning and happy black friday. it is the most wonderful time of the year for retailers. while today is the unfoibl kickoff for the holiday season, many shoppers got started with a trip to the mall. it is friday, november 29th, 2013. "squawk box" begins right now. >> big screen tvs, laptops. >> i want to get shoes. >> a keurig. i'm really, really excited about it.
6:00 am
>> good morning, everybody. hope you enjoyed your holiday. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman, who is in for joe kernen today. o is enjoying a day off. our top story today, of course, it's retail. so we are lucky enough to have our industry expert dana telsey here this morning. >> thank you. thank you for having me. >> have you slept? >> i don't believe in sleeping, not when the stores are open. >> that's what we figured. we'll talk more to dana in just a moment. at least a dozen retail chains opened their stores yesterday. it did make for some big thanksgiving day sales. overall, the national retail federation expects sales to be up by 3.9% during the last two months of the year. that is higher than last year's 3.5% growth. but it's below the 6% rates that we saw just before the

69 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on